Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 386 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 386 SEA 06:57 → ANC 09:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 83 SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 386 Alaska	SEA 06:57	ANC 09:45	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:35	ANC 10:21	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 936 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	ANC 23:58	10%	2%	0.7%	73%
DL 2367 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:49	ANC 22:53	10%	2%	0.7%	79%
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	16%	3%	0.7%	73%
AS 205 Alaska	SEA 00:49	ANC 03:17	17%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 228 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:54	ANC 23:41	18%	2%	0.7%	77%
AS 769 Alaska	SEA 19:57	ANC 22:44	19%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 85 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:52	ANC 20:40	19%	2%	0.7%	88%
AS 1490 Alaska	SEA 22:03	ANC 00:50	22%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1436 Alaska	SEA 14:34	ANC 17:21	22%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1438 Alaska	SEA 18:58	ANC 21:42	23%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:58	ANC 18:37	23%	2%	0.7%	78%
AS 1434 Alaska	SEA 12:11	ANC 14:58	24%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 708 Alaska	SEA 09:35	ANC 12:23	25%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 9560 Alaska	SEA 16:33	ANC 19:06	26%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1440 Alaska	SEA 13:22	ANC 16:10	26%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1432 Alaska	SEA 11:04	ANC 14:12	28%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:39	ANC 14:27	28%	3%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON