Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 739 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 739 SEA 07:15 → AUS 13:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 502 SEA 11:55 → AUS 17:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:00	AUS 17:16	22%	4%	0.6%	79%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	22%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 4506 Southwest	SEA 14:07	AUS 20:05	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 352 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:00	AUS 15:00	25%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:55	AUS 17:48	30%	3%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON