Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 815 SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 504 SEA 17:32 → BNA 23:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 815 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	BNA 23:54	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 2614 Southwest	SEA 22:58	BNA 05:08	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 522 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:33	BNA 15:53	22%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 504 Alaska	SEA 17:32	BNA 23:50	24%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON