Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 473 at 23:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 473 SEA 23:15 → BOS 07:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 306 SEA 10:19 → BOS 18:32 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 473 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	BOS 07:35	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 459 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:29	BOS 16:00	16%	6%	0.9%	88%
DL 474 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	BOS 00:14	20%	8%	0.9%	71%
AS 214 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:14	BOS 08:29	21%	2%	0.7%	81%
B6 398 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 23:44	BOS 08:09	31%	8%	0.7%	55%
AS 460 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:36	BOS 23:59	31%	8%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AS 357 Alaska	SEA 07:58	BOS 16:07	33%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 438 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:15	BOS 19:43	36%	15%	0.9%	65%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:19	BOS 18:32	50%	17%	0.9%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 39m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	54m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707	7h 15m	82%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON