Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1388 SEA 07:23 → BUR 09:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 478 SEA 10:11 → BUR 12:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1388 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:23	BUR 09:49	16%	3%	1.4%	87%
AS 530 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:29	BUR 18:56	19%	4%	1.0%	84%
AS 1389 Alaska	SEA 08:26	BUR 10:51	20%	3%	1.5%	no record
AS 529 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:56	BUR 16:23	23%	4%	1.1%	73%
AS 478 Alaska	SEA 10:11	BUR 12:38	24%	4%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON