Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 781 SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 378 SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 781 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:36	BWI 05:41	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 3525 Southwest	SEA 22:28	BWI 06:21	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 378 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	BWI 17:04	17%	3%	0.6%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	96%	84%
American Details →	SEA 00:22 → ORD 06:17AA 379	58m Chicago	ORD 07:15 → BWI 10:27AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	7h 05m	75%	65%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:11UA 1557	7h 19m	81%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON