Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 269 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:13	CLE 05:43	14%	3%	0.7%	83%
AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:10	CLE 16:36	18%	3%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → CLE 10:11DL 1083	7h 08m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	8h 30m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855	8h 49m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:35DL 1339	10h 36m	98%	83%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 36m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:10 → MSP 17:28DL 536	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392	8h 34m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	9h 50m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350	9h 41m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 11:15 → BOS 19:43DL 438	1h 12m Boston	BOS 20:55 → CLE 23:07DL 5655 · flown by Republic	8h 52m	70%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON