Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 381 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 381 SEA 06:44 → CLT 14:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 585 SEA 12:29 → CLT 20:42 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 381 American Flight history →	SEA 06:44	CLT 14:53	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 659 American	SEA 21:35	CLT 05:27	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 854 American Flight history →	SEA 08:28	CLT 16:37	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 585 American	SEA 12:29	CLT 20:42	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 17m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON