tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via O'Hare, leaving 00:22, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 280 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:12 CMH 05:40 19% 2% 0.6% 90%
AS 450 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:41 CMH 17:09 26% 3% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:22 → ORD 06:17AA 379 1h 11m Chicago ORD 07:28 → CMH 10:02AA 3414 · flown by Envoy 6h 40m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 8h 46m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 59m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 2h 50m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 10h 03m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 20:32 → CMH 22:16DL 1501 10h 17m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → CMH 00:24 +1DL 1459 9h 25m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:10 → MSP 17:28DL 536 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 7h 57m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → CMH 22:13AA 641 7h 33m 53% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON