tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: DL 558 at 11:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 558 Delta Flight history → SEA 11:40 CVG 19:05 11% 2% 0.6% 89%
AS 451 Alaska SEA 10:02 CVG 17:15 23% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 8h 23m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 7h 00m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 9h 40m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → CVG 21:45DL 2248 9h 46m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:10 → MSP 17:28DL 536 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 01m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 33m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 41m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 8h 37m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON