Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, QX 2182 at 14:16, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2182 Horizon	SEA 14:16	ELP 18:47	19%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:38 → ELP 13:34UA 2128	7h 34m	99%	88%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	3h 21m Houston	IAH 16:52 → ELP 18:08UA 3983 · flown by Mesa	10h 03m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	10h 51m	97%	82%
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:08 → ELP 17:03AA 2097	8h 37m	97%	79%
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → ELP 22:10AA 1514	9h 30m	98%	76%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:03 → ELP 18:58AA 555	7h 36m	89%	73%
American Details →	SEA 13:44 → ORD 20:11AA 2966	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 21:22 → ELP 23:46AA 3948 · flown by Envoy	9h 02m	86%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON