Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 181 SEA 16:04 → EUG 17:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4149 SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 181 SkyWest	SEA 16:04	EUG 17:22	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3016 SkyWest	SEA 15:49	EUG 17:07	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3128 SkyWest	SEA 17:36	EUG 18:54	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4149 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:30	EUG 12:58	16%	5%	0.5%	88%
AS 2047 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:49	EUG 23:59	10%	0%	0.0%	90%
AS 2072 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:55	EUG 09:07	19%	0%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON