Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1900 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1900 SEA 07:30 → EWR 15:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 295 SEA 08:51 → EWR 16:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1900 United Flight history →	SEA 07:30	EWR 15:51	17%	5%	0.7%	90%
AS 314 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:40	EWR 06:59	18%	3%	1.0%	86%
UA 2017 United	SEA 22:38	EWR 06:50	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 3937 United	SEA 09:03	EWR 17:30	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SEA 13:06	EWR 21:30	31%	9%	0.7%	74%
AS 292 Alaska	SEA 09:56	EWR 18:03	31%	7%	1.0%	no record
AS 295 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:51	EWR 16:50	33%	6%	1.0%	83%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 24m	97%	71%
United Details →	SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618	56m Chicago	ORD 14:11 → EWR 17:16UA 2466	7h 16m	85%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON