Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1061 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1061 SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 381 SEA 09:51 → FAI 12:43 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:45	FAI 13:42	19%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 349 Alaska	SEA 19:55	FAI 22:47	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 351 Alaska	SEA 22:57	FAI 01:50	22%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 230 Alaska	SEA 12:22	FAI 15:21	25%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	FAI 20:46	26%	3%	0.7%	75%
AS 381 Alaska	SEA 09:51	FAI 12:43	30%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON