Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 3343 at 20:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Safest bet that day AS 3343 SEA 20:25 → FAT 22:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 383 SEA 13:17 → FAT 15:06 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3343 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	FAT 22:46	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 383 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:17	FAT 15:06	33%	4%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
AS 2375 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 08:32	FAT 10:46	40%	7%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON