Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3744 at 08:48, 30%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3744 Southwest	SEA 08:48	HOU 15:07	30%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 22m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:44DL 652	57m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	7h 43m	91%	85%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → HOU 22:36DL 2051	8h 37m	90%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON