Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2693 SEA 23:08 → IAD 06:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 737 SEA 09:13 → IAD 17:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2693 United	SEA 23:08	IAD 06:57	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 541 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:05	IAD 00:08	15%	4%	0.7%	77%
UA 1523 United	SEA 08:31	IAD 16:40	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 675 Alaska	SEA 15:54	IAD 00:11	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:43	IAD 06:39	19%	2%	0.6%	84%
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:13	IAD 17:11	20%	4%	0.6%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	6h 59m	78%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON