Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 624 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:39	IND 05:44	17%	3%	0.7%	79%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	IND 16:16	20%	3%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	8h 25m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:01 → IND 11:39DL 8842	8h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	97%	89%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	6h 35m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	9h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979	8h 42m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	10h 28m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228	8h 50m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 08:58 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	47m Denver	DEN 13:32 → IND 18:08UA 1228	6h 10m	71%	62%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 28m	67%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON