Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 429 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 429 SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 34 SEA 13:27 → JFK 21:26 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	JFK 15:49	10%	4%	1.0%	88%
DL 1044 Delta	SEA 16:04	JFK 00:11	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	13%	3%	1.1%	86%
AS 22 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	JFK 07:38	17%	2%	1.1%	81%
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	21%	9%	1.0%	74%
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:19	JFK 06:39	23%	8%	1.4%	74%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:27	JFK 17:27	28%	6%	1.2%	86%worse than usual
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	JFK 15:03	28%	6%	1.9%	63%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:27	JFK 21:26	38%	8%	1.1%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 10:35 → PDX 11:41DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Portland	PDX 12:49 → JFK 21:02DL 2139	7h 27m	87%	69%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	54m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → JFK 19:41DL 1316	6h 56m	82%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON