Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2169 at 16:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2169 SEA 16:50 → JNU 18:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 209 SEA 11:24 → JNU 12:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2169 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:50	JNU 18:26	14%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 384 Alaska	SEA 20:15	JNU 21:53	19%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 61 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:08	JNU 08:44	24%	4%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AS 435 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:43	JNU 15:17	30%	5%	0.8%	79%
AS 7006 Alaska	SEA 09:01	JNU 10:40	30%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 209 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:24	JNU 12:56	33%	6%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON