Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 340 at 14:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 340 SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 709 SEA 09:59 → KOA 12:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 340 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	KOA 17:35	17%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 238 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	KOA 19:05	25%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 518 Alaska	SEA 09:58	KOA 13:03	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 709 Alaska	SEA 09:59	KOA 12:46	30%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 07:07 → HNL 10:04AS 821	1h 31m Honolulu	HNL 11:35 → KOA 12:37AS 1098	8h 30m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:14AS 899	1h 22m Honolulu	HNL 16:36 → KOA 17:34AS 1168	8h 25m	78%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON