Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 65 SEA 07:03 → KTN 08:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 67 SEA 15:37 → KTN 16:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 65 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	KTN 08:13	19%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 69 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:16	KTN 19:20	22%	4%	0.7%	81%
AS 7004 Alaska	SEA 14:37	KTN 15:44	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:37	KTN 16:43	28%	5%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON