Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 409 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 409 SEA 06:21 → LAS 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 703 SEA 17:29 → LAS 19:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 409 Southwest	SEA 06:21	LAS 08:40	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2949 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:34	LAS 23:10	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:05	LAS 13:42	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 704 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:15	LAS 22:55	16%	4%	0.6%	89%
F9 4204 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 21:50	LAS 00:27	17%	6%	1.1%	70%
AS 1363 Alaska	SEA 08:07	LAS 10:29	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	LAS 14:16	20%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 4509 Southwest	SEA 12:44	LAS 15:03	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1081 Southwest	SEA 16:14	LAS 18:33	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 678 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:58	LAS 17:21	21%	4%	0.6%	67%
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:17	LAS 13:45	22%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 703 Alaska	SEA 17:29	LAS 19:51	23%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON