Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1628 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1628 SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 63 SEA 17:56 → LAX 20:26 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1628 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	LAX 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
AS 505 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	LAX 08:47	9%	1%	0.7%	84%
DL 2914 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:35	LAX 15:23	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
OO 4729 SkyWest	SEA 12:29	LAX 15:37	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4896 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:00	LAX 10:02	9%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 2769 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:05	LAX 12:55	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
OO 4988 SkyWest	SEA 13:10	LAX 16:06	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6053 SkyWest	SEA 06:46	LAX 09:23	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4796 SkyWest	SEA 16:38	LAX 19:18	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:58	LAX 19:38	14%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 2830 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:51	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2512 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:36	LAX 00:13	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
DL 2861 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	LAX 20:13	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
F9 1178 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 19:43	LAX 22:29	17%	5%	1.1%	83%
AS 492 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:10	LAX 19:55	18%	4%	0.7%	78%
AS 1300 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	LAX 18:44	18%	5%	0.7%	77%
AS 1306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:55	LAX 12:23	18%	3%	0.7%	91%
AS 696 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	LAX 16:25	18%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 524 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:46	LAX 23:19	20%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 458 Alaska	SEA 14:58	LAX 17:28	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 487 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:41	LAX 14:11	25%	4%	0.7%	57%
AS 63 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	LAX 20:26	25%	5%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON