Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 345 at 15:50 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 345 SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 258 SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 345 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:50	LIH 18:58	19%	5%	0.8%	76%
AS 237 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:13	LIH 21:25	24%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 258 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:28	LIH 14:40	35%	6%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:53AS 626	2h 23m Honolulu	HNL 15:16 → LIH 16:12AS 1113	9h 07m	97%	69%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:07 → HNL 10:05AS 821	1h 14m Honolulu	HNL 11:19 → LIH 12:14AS 1073	8h 07m	83%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON