Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1396 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1396 SEA 05:24 → MDW 11:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 247 SEA 10:49 → MDW 16:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1396 Southwest	SEA 05:24	MDW 11:19	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3534 Southwest	SEA 00:02	MDW 05:50	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 247 Southwest	SEA 10:49	MDW 16:46	16%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON