Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 2230 SEA 09:58 → MSO 12:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 1435 SEA 20:28 → MSO 22:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 2230 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 09:58	MSO 12:30	22%	6%	1.2%	84%
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:47	MSO 15:13	25%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 1435 Alaska	SEA 20:28	MSO 22:49	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON