tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 568 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:37 MSY 16:16 25% 3% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 9h 35m 100% 93%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:22 → ORD 06:17AA 379 2h 13m Chicago ORD 08:30 → MSY 10:51AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 8h 29m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 57m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 6h 17m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 20m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 9h 44m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450 9h 29m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678 9h 14m 94% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:44 → ORD 20:11AA 2966 58m Chicago ORD 21:09 → MSY 23:32AA 3256 7h 48m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON