Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2995 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2995 SEA 07:44 → OAK 09:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 533 SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2995 Southwest	SEA 07:44	OAK 09:44	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4514 Southwest	SEA 19:03	OAK 21:04	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	SEA 07:05	OAK 09:06	20%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4513 Southwest	SEA 15:51	OAK 17:51	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 706 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:42	OAK 22:45	23%	5%	0.7%	77%
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:42	OAK 18:45	28%	5%	0.7%	73%
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:01	OAK 13:03	33%	4%	0.8%	92%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON