Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 344 at 14:59 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 344 SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 929 SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 344 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:59	OGG 17:56	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
AS 245 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:05	OGG 11:19	24%	5%	0.6%	82%
AS 223 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:53	OGG 16:59	28%	5%	0.6%	80%
AS 929 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:15	OGG 13:19	31%	6%	0.6%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 06:36 → SFO 08:41AS 725	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 09:57 → OGG 12:22AS 979	8h 46m	84%	74%
Alaska Details →	SEA 10:05 → HNL 12:52AS 626	1h 44m Honolulu	HNL 14:36 → OGG 15:26AS 1136	8h 21m	89%	63%
Alaska Details →	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:14AS 899	1h 54m Honolulu	HNL 17:08 → OGG 17:58AS 1186	8h 49m	88%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON