Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 3884 at 19:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3884 SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 571 SEA 11:29 → ONT 13:59 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3884 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:59	ONT 22:52	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 4031 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:30	ONT 17:21	13%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 4070 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:25	ONT 11:17	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 1364 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:33	ONT 11:14	18%	2%	0.8%	90%
F9 2276 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 11:54	ONT 14:45	23%	4%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AS 592 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:40	ONT 19:00	35%	4%	0.6%	75%
AS 571 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:29	ONT 13:59	42%	4%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON