Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 747 at 23:11 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 747 SEA 23:11 → ORD 05:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 429 SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 747 United Flight history →	SEA 23:11	ORD 05:18	10%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 1872 American	SEA 06:19	ORD 12:25	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	13%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 379 American Flight history →	SEA 00:22	ORD 06:17	14%	6%	1.3%	92%
AS 410 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ORD 11:57	14%	3%	1.0%	72%
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	15%	8%	0.7%	76%
AS 328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:17	ORD 06:20	16%	4%	1.0%	83%
AS 538 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:48	ORD 23:59	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1476 American	SEA 15:30	ORD 21:34	20%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 1265 United	SEA 17:11	ORD 22:57	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	24%	12%	0.6%	72%
UA 2369 United	SEA 13:56	ORD 20:06	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ORD 16:43	25%	11%	0.7%	72%
AA 2966 American Flight history →	SEA 13:44	ORD 20:11	25%	10%	0.9%	47%
AA 3105 American	SEA 10:51	ORD 16:55	27%	11%	1.1%	no record
AS 429 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:29	ORD 16:44	33%	9%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON