Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4784 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4784 SEA 07:15 → PHX 10:06 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 417 SEA 11:54 → PHX 14:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4784 Southwest	SEA 07:15	PHX 10:06	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	9%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2447 Delta Flight history →	SEA 20:30	PHX 23:33	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	12%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	PHX 16:41	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 18:16	PHX 21:25	16%	3%	0.6%	68%
DL 2698 Delta Flight history →	SEA 18:30	PHX 21:29	16%	3%	0.6%	77%
MQ 4207 Envoy	SEA 14:35	PHX 17:38	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	PHX 14:59	18%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 4117 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 11:38	PHX 14:43	19%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 632 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PHX 22:53	22%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 1394 Southwest	SEA 14:58	PHX 17:48	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 606 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:36	PHX 10:02	23%	3%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 746 Alaska	SEA 16:46	PHX 19:34	26%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	28%	4%	0.6%	81%
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:49	PHX 17:37	28%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 269 Southwest	SEA 11:44	PHX 14:30	28%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:50	PHX 12:39	28%	3%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:54	PHX 14:44	33%	4%	0.6%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON