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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AS 1498 at 20:10 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1498 Alaska SEA 20:10 PSP 22:44 20% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 1494 Alaska SEA 10:05 PSP 12:37 33% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 37m Denver DEN 11:20 → PSP 12:41UA 687 7h 41m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 10:32 → PSP 11:50AA 1884 5h 34m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 11:38 → PHX 14:43AA 4117 · flown by Envoy 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 17:13 → PSP 18:25AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 93% 78%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:35 → PSP 20:36AA 2709 10h 14m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 20:19 → PSP 21:57AS 3356 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:04 → SFO 09:06UA 499 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 12:42 → PSP 14:14UA 342 7h 10m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON