Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 4047 at 21:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 4047 SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 275 SEA 11:28 → RDM 12:33 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4047 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:35	RDM 22:57	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:25	RDM 18:43	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:22	RDM 12:45	13%	5%	0.7%	90%
OO 3063 SkyWest	SEA 08:05	RDM 09:18	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 275 Alaska	SEA 11:28	RDM 12:33	28%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 2094 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:53	RDM 23:59	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AS 2079 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:55	RDM 09:04	15%	0%	0.0%	85%
AS 2400 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:56	RDM 13:08	37%	4%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON