Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 489 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:55	RDU 23:55	14%	4%	0.7%	77%
AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:20	RDU 16:31	18%	3%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	8h 33m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 07:01 → RDU 10:36DL 2519	7h 33m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955	3h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 22:22 → RDU 05:51 +1DL 822	10h 26m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 00:06 +1DL 402	9h 57m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	9h 54m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	9h 11m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 22:00DL 3244	10h 01m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	8h 46m	98%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 13:44 → ORD 20:11AA 2966	47m Chicago	ORD 20:58 → RDU 00:17 +1AA 600	7h 33m	66%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON