Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2508 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SEA 07:15 → SAN 10:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2623 SEA 17:32 → SAN 20:06 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SAN 10:11	11%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:14	SAN 15:16	12%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:15	SAN 18:05	13%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 2672 Delta Flight history →	SEA 19:40	SAN 22:34	16%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SAN 12:39	16%	4%	0.8%	82%
AS 247 Alaska	SEA 20:43	SAN 23:22	23%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 621 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:32	SAN 14:08	26%	5%	0.8%	82%
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:19	SAN 16:57	27%	5%	0.8%	78%
WN 3538 Southwest	SEA 08:30	SAN 11:03	28%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:40	SAN 10:16	28%	4%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:41	SAN 11:18	29%	4%	0.8%	81%
AS 635 Alaska	SEA 17:17	SAN 19:45	30%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 697 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:13	SAN 12:49	32%	5%	0.8%	78%
WN 2623 Southwest	SEA 17:32	SAN 20:06	34%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON