Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Antonio on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:38	SAT 15:46	24%	3%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	9h 46m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	6h 06m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580	9h 06m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:31 → SAT 17:20DL 2199	8h 05m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465	9h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365	10h 37m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	59m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	8h 21m	95%	85%
United Details →	SEA 07:04 → SFO 09:06UA 499	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 12:26 → SAT 18:06UA 2365	9h 02m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON