Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 3736 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3736 SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 658 SEA 10:54 → SJC 12:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3956 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:30	SJC 22:48	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:50	SJC 20:14	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 4516 Southwest	SEA 09:28	SJC 11:32	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
OO 168 SkyWest	SEA 11:54	SJC 14:08	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4517 Southwest	SEA 14:52	SJC 16:58	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2826 Southwest	SEA 18:40	SJC 20:46	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 1444 Alaska	SEA 20:45	SJC 22:52	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:33	SJC 18:40	17%	4%	0.7%	87%
AS 1303 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:44	SJC 19:51	18%	4%	0.7%	83%
AS 657 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:37	SJC 15:43	21%	3%	0.7%	77%
AS 658 Alaska	SEA 10:54	SJC 12:59	21%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON