Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1001 SEA 10:12 → SNA 12:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	8%	1%	0.7%	92%
AS 631 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:10	SNA 22:01	13%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 3695 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:35	SNA 22:21	15%	3%	0.6%	60%
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	17%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 687 Alaska	SEA 17:22	SNA 19:58	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1475 Alaska	SEA 15:31	SNA 18:07	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3697 SkyWest	SEA 14:29	SNA 17:14	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	19%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:49	SNA 16:41	19%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 3694 SkyWest	SEA 08:21	SNA 11:04	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1001 Delta	SEA 10:12	SNA 12:53	21%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON