tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 388 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:08 STL 13:57 22% 3% 0.5% 86%
AS 672 Alaska SEA 12:38 STL 18:29 24% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:03 → MSP 05:11DL 953 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:43DL 1289 8h 40m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 10h 15m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 2h 56m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 8h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 3h 47m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 45m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 03m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:22 → ORD 06:17AA 379 2h 46m Chicago ORD 09:03 → STL 10:31AA 2818 8h 09m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:43 → STL 16:40AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 9h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 9h 53m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 50m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 6h 31m 74% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON