Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1321 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:54	STS 11:58	15%	3%	0.8%	83%
AS 1330 Alaska	SEA 19:55	STS 21:51	15%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → STS 12:42AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 26m	92%	82%
Alaska Details →	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	3h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 19:53 → STS 21:31AS 2090 · flown by Horizon	7h 53m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26AS 699	2h 22m Santa Ana	SNA 11:48 → STS 13:37AS 3467 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SEA 11:17 → LAS 13:45AS 612	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 14:45 → STS 16:27AS 1332	5h 10m	70%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON