Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	TPA 20:19	15%	4%	0.7%	79%
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:16	TPA 17:33	18%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	9h 02m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	8h 27m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	9h 30m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	9h 50m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	7h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861	2h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910	9h 46m	97%	82%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 14m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:59 → ATL 16:59DL 560	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → TPA 21:30DL 3135	9h 31m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 12:10 → MSP 17:28DL 536	47m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	7h 16m	75%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON