Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:58, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Nonstops that day


QX 2400 Horizon	SEA 12:05	TUL 17:50	16%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SEA 00:22 → ORD 06:17AA 379	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 08:29 → TUL 10:37AA 4155 · flown by Envoy	8h 15m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:02 → ATL 07:45DL 652	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	9h 54m	100%	92%
American Details →	SEA 13:44 → ORD 20:11AA 2966	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	8h 22m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	99%	90%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 21m Denver	DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	10h 04m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	9h 20m	96%	85%
United Details →	SEA 15:48 → DEN 19:23UA 757	1h 32m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	92%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON