Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 577 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day B6 577 FLL 06:26 → SFO 09:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2753 MIA 14:00 → SFO 17:08 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:26	SFO 09:26	6%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1267 United	FLL 12:31	SFO 15:43	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	19%	11%	1.6%	62%
AA 2347 American	MIA 20:46	SFO 00:00	23%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 14:00	SFO 17:08	25%	8%	0.8%	92%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983	1h 47m Phoenix	PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	8h 47m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	7h 57m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	98%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON