Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2863 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2863 MIA 06:51 → HOU 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1495 FLL 12:56 → IAH 14:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2863 Southwest	MIA 06:51	HOU 08:25	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	6%	3%	1.4%	97%
WN 1787 Southwest	FLL 07:26	HOU 08:59	6%	2%	1.5%	no record
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	7%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	8%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:08	IAH 12:49	10%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
AA 1347 American	MIA 09:06	IAH 11:00	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	13%	5%	0.8%	87%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	14%	4%	0.8%	79%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:01	IAH 09:53	14%	4%	1.2%	81%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:36	IAH 20:26	15%	5%	0.9%	81%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	20%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:35	IAH 16:26	22%	9%	0.8%	61%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	22%	11%	1.6%	45%
WN 1788 Southwest	FLL 18:19	HOU 19:54	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	IAH 21:52	24%	10%	1.6%	70%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	26%	7%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON