Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1301 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day B6 1301 FLL 06:52 → LAX 09:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2458 MIA 21:58 → LAX 00:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1301 JetBlue	FLL 06:52	LAX 09:29	9%	3%	1.9%	no record
DL 573 Delta	FLL 17:37	LAX 20:11	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:39	LAX 11:04	11%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	12%	3%	0.9%	82%
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:54	LAX 18:29	14%	6%	0.8%	72%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	18%	8%	0.9%	71%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	18%	6%	1.2%	84%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:46	LAX 16:16	18%	8%	0.8%	73%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:39	LAX 18:15	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:58	LAX 00:48	20%	7%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 25m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	97%	87%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	1h 08m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 30m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON