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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 64 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:38 → LGA 21:36 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 4% 2% 2.6% 90%
UA 2299 United FLL 07:00 EWR 10:04 5% 3% 2.2% no record
AA 525 American Flight history → MIA 06:28 JFK 09:35 5% 2% 1.6% 92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 6% 2% 1.5% 88%
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 6% 2% 1.1% 93%
DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 09:57 6% 3% 2.7% 94%
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 06:25 LGA 09:24 6% 2% 1.7% 87%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:01 JFK 10:00 7% 3% 3.1% 95%
AA 3205 American MIA 08:14 JFK 11:32 8% 3% 1.7% no record
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:03 LGA 09:08 9% 3% 3.5% 83%
AA 1801 American Flight history → MIA 08:16 EWR 11:17 9% 3% 1.3% 93%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:48 EWR 11:54 9% 3% 1.1% 88%
AA 2341 American Flight history → MIA 08:27 JFK 11:19 10% 3% 1.6% 84%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:00 EWR 11:00 11% 5% 2.0% 65%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 08:15 LGA 11:16 12% 3% 1.8% 76%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 10:02 EWR 13:06 14% 6% 1.3% 83%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 15% 7% 1.4% 59%
AA 605 American Flight history → MIA 09:10 LGA 12:14 16% 5% 2.6% 88%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 17% 6% 2.9% 72%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 18% 9% 1.6% 72%
AA 2062 American MIA 10:35 JFK 13:34 18% 7% 2.1% no record
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 19% 8% 1.3% 90%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 20% 9% 1.9% 64%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:42 LGA 12:38 21% 8% 3.3% 74%
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 21% 7% 1.8% 64%
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:24 EWR 20:35 22% 11% 1.2% 69%
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:27 EWR 14:36 23% 7% 1.1% 94%worse than usual
DL 1473 Delta MIA 11:30 JFK 14:19 23% 7% 2.1% no record
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:59 EWR 16:03 23% 11% 1.1% 78%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 24% 11% 1.4% 73%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 20:40 EWR 23:59 25% 8% 1.9% 72%
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 25% 7% 1.4% 62%
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:53 EWR 19:00 25% 14% 1.2% 61%
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 26% 9% 1.5% 56%
AA 2424 American MIA 10:08 LGA 13:13 26% 8% 2.7% no record
AA 2124 American MIA 16:24 JFK 19:30 26% 14% 1.7% no record
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:46 LGA 22:40 27% 10% 1.5% 62%
DL 1794 Delta MIA 19:48 JFK 22:37 27% 10% 1.5% no record
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 27% 12% 3.0% 70%
AA 2899 American Flight history → MIA 13:54 JFK 16:55 27% 9% 1.5% 61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 28% 13% 1.6% 51%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:20 JFK 14:13 28% 11% 2.9% 64%
DL 1498 Delta MIA 11:37 LGA 14:29 28% 11% 2.8% no record
AA 1135 American FLL 12:10 LGA 15:04 28% 13% 2.9% no record
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 29% 13% 1.8% 68%
B6 2702 JetBlue FLL 18:39 JFK 21:33 29% 11% 1.4% no record
AA 2600 American MIA 18:30 JFK 21:33 29% 11% 1.4% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 30% 10% 1.7% 57%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 30% 14% 1.6% 72%
UA 712 United FLL 14:28 EWR 17:20 30% 13% 1.3% no record
AA 2484 American MIA 12:25 LGA 15:23 30% 13% 2.8% no record
UA 1102 United MIA 13:31 EWR 16:37 31% 10% 1.2% no record
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 32% 11% 2.5% 58%
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 35% 10% 1.8% 46%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 35% 16% 1.6% 57%
AA 2968 American FLL 17:35 LGA 20:42 35% 13% 1.7% no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 12:06 LGA 14:59 36% 16% 3.0% 58%
AA 2262 American MIA 19:47 LGA 22:45 36% 12% 1.9% no record
AA 552 American MIA 14:25 LGA 17:22 37% 16% 2.0% no record
AA 897 American MIA 15:23 LGA 18:25 37% 16% 1.7% no record
AA 2271 American Flight history → MIA 18:06 LGA 21:12 39% 14% 2.3% 57%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:15 LGA 23:14 39% 16% 1.6% 55%
AA 2172 American MIA 16:23 LGA 19:25 42% 17% 2.3% no record
B6 672 JetBlue FLL 18:38 LGA 21:36 45% 15% 1.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON