Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1274 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1274 FLL 07:03 → MCO 08:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 16:54 → MCO 18:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1274 Southwest	FLL 07:03	MCO 08:07	3%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 1578 Southwest	MIA 07:10	MCO 08:14	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 08:26	MCO 09:38	8%	3%	0.8%	97%
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:00	MCO 11:08	10%	4%	1.2%	76%
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 10:02	MCO 11:13	12%	4%	0.9%	83%
WN 1792 Southwest	FLL 16:45	MCO 17:49	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:55	MCO 15:07	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	18%	8%	1.3%	64%
AA 875 American	MIA 21:55	MCO 23:10	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 3346 Southwest	MIA 16:42	MCO 17:46	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:37	MCO 20:52	20%	7%	1.5%	60%
AA 1610 American	MIA 16:54	MCO 18:11	23%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON