Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3881 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3881 MIA 07:34 → BWI 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3881 Southwest	MIA 07:34	BWI 10:09	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
WN 1778 Southwest	FLL 08:51	BWI 11:25	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	8%	3%	2.7%	92%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:05	DCA 10:51	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1584 Southwest	FLL 10:40	BWI 13:15	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
WN 1478 Southwest	FLL 15:00	BWI 17:40	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1569 Southwest	FLL 12:14	BWI 14:48	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2859 Southwest	MIA 11:54	BWI 14:37	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 10:04	DCA 12:54	13%	5%	0.8%	85%
WN 3156 Southwest	FLL 10:53	DCA 13:19	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2435 United Flight history →	MIA 13:10	IAD 15:53	14%	5%	0.7%	88%
MQ 4219 Envoy	MIA 14:00	BWI 16:48	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:25	DCA 14:13	14%	6%	1.3%	86%
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:23	BWI 13:19	15%	6%	1.4%	72%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	16%	7%	1.3%	76%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	17%	5%	1.0%	70%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:55	DCA 16:44	19%	8%	1.0%	no record
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	20%	10%	1.4%	57%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	21%	8%	2.1%	74%
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:22	DCA 18:03	21%	9%	1.0%	58%
WN 3885 Southwest	MIA 16:09	BWI 18:53	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:05	DCA 14:42	23%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	23%	10%	1.5%	63%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 18:36	BWI 21:24	24%	9%	1.1%	57%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	25%	9%	1.1%	52%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	25%	10%	1.5%	54%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	26%	12%	1.2%	61%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	28%	12%	1.5%	36%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	29%	10%	1.4%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON